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Refinancing Surges As Homeowners Pull
Out The Most Cash in 12 Years.
Refinance lending has nearly doubled over the past three quarters, according to Black Knight. Cash-out refinances were up 24% since the last quarter of 2018 and made up 52% of all refinances. Homeowners withdrew a collective $36 billion in home equity, the highest amount in nearly 12 years.
After jumping 265bp in six trading days by intraday last Friday, the FNMA 30-year 6.5% coupon has given back some of those gains retreating from resistance at $101. The 10-year yield fell to 4.48% on Friday on the weak headline news from the October Jobs Report. It is now at 4.64%.
Economic data is scarce this week with just Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment. The Treasury will sell $48B 3-year notes tomorrow, $40B 10s on Wednesday and $24B 30-year bonds on Thursday. Sellers have appeared ahead of the heavier-than-usual supply from the Treasury.
Fed speak will be plentiful beginning tomorrow with the highlight being Fed Chair Powell speaking to the Division of Research and Statistics' centennial conference before the market opens on Wednesday and will also speak at the Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference at 2:00 pm ET Thursday.
The Israel/Hamas war remains an enormous uncertain geopolitical risk. Oil is a bit higher this morning and that is not helping bonds as well.
Technically, the FNMA 30-year 6.5% coupon broke a multi-month downtrend in prices. This is great news. This does not mean that prices go straight up. As we shared last week, our job will not be easy as volatility remains high and there are still many betting on higher rates (short sellers). The first line of resistance (R1) is 100.50 and the next is R2 at 101.00. It would be a good sign for Mortgage Bonds to break above $101.0 and make that a floor of support. The 10-year yield is 4.64% - with yield support at 4.50%, which prevented more rate relief last week.